President Joe Biden is facing a critical decision regarding his reelection campaign. According to Stifel, there is a 40% chance that President Biden will not seek reelection. Brian Gardner, the chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel, believes that this week will be a “make or break” moment for the President’s campaign as Congress returns from its Fourth of July recess. Gardner stated that there is a 60% chance, more likely than not, that President Biden will choose to stay in the race.

Gardner speculates that President Biden is motivated to stay in the race because he loves proving wrong the “smart kids” in the Democratic Party. The more pressure he receives from elites within his party to drop out, the more determined he becomes to stay and fight for his reelection. Gardner also points out that those urging President Biden to withdraw lack the leverage to force him out of the race. Despite concerns about his age and a poor debate performance, President Biden seems determined to continue his campaign.

While polling data and financial markets are starting to shift in favor of former President Donald Trump, Gardner believes that if President Biden remains in the race, the Democratic Party may still have a chance at a favorable outcome. He argues that there is a segment of voters who will never support Trump, regardless of the circumstances. This could work in President Biden’s favor if he chooses to stay in the race.

President Biden is facing a critical juncture in his potential reelection bid. The decision he makes in the coming days could have profound implications for the Democratic Party and the 2024 presidential election. Only time will tell whether President Biden will choose to stay and fight for a second term or bow out of the race.

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